NREI – With approximately $700 billion worth of loans coming due on distressed properties over the next four years, transaction activity in commercial real estate is picking up this year, albeit slowly, and is expected to intensify in 2011 and 2012.

Investment capital that had been waiting on the sidelines from mid-2008 and the first quarter of this year is getting back into the game as confidence returns in the form of the market’s stabilizing fundamentals.

“For example, life insurance companies, a traditional source of capital, are back in the market,” says Craig Butchenhart, the president and director of capital services for NorthMarq Capital, a national firm that offers commercial real estate investment banking. “And as more traditional sources come back to the market, there will be available capital to access.”

Many of the loans originated in 2006 and 2007 — the height of the commercial real estate boom — come due in 2011 and 2012. Morningstar, an investment resource specializing in fund investing, believes that will create an environment that fosters asset sales more aggressively than in 2010. To date, 2010 has produced better opportunities for refinancing than outright asset sales.

“Most institutions that we deal with believe that values are fairly stable now,” Butchenhart says. “Confidence that fundamentals are stabilizing and not deteriorating further is bringing these institutions back to the market.”

Of course, available capital is just one aspect of the picture. Financial institutions are lending again, but underwriting requirements remain conservative as stronger cash flows continue to be required as well as longer leases, and the ability of the borrower to pay back its loan.


One surprise that may generate more transaction activity in the near future is the return of the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market. Many analysts hadn’t expected the CMBS market to turn around this early after it was considered dead for nearly two years during the recession. Since then, few CMBS-backed deals have occurred as investors and issuers, aware of the creditworthiness risks involved, painstakingly do their homework on these securities.

In June, JP Morgan Chase Commercial Mortgage Securities Corp. issued a $716.3 million CMBS-backed bond, primarily consisting of retail properties, in the second such deal this year.

“There’s a little life in the CMBS market,” Butchenhart says.

There’s significant maturity in the CMBS loan pipeline, and most of those maturing CMBS loans are being refinanced due to low interest rates as they are maturing at rates higher than the current interest rates. If they can’t be refinanced, the CMBS loans are being modified or extended for a period of time as the borrowers await capital.

“As long as those properties have maintained a reasonable amount of leasing, loans can be refinanced,” Butchenhart says.

The Federal Reserve has held interest rates near zero while also highlighting increased momentum in the US economy’s recovery, during its latest meeting on monetary policy.

The Fed’s nod to a firmer rebound from the deepest recession in decades hints that it is moving closer to dropping its promise to hold borrowing costs at rock bottom levels, suggesting rate hikes could come within several months.

Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig said the commitment to keep rates exceptionally low for an extended period was no longer warranted.

It said the US labour market was stabilising, which is a view that is more upbeat than at the last meeting in late January, when the policy-setting committee said only that deterioration in the labour market was ‘abating’.

The Fed also said business spending on equipment and software had risen ‘significantly’. Again, this is a brighter assessment than the one it gave in late January.

The US economy resumed growth in the second half of last year, and expanded at a robust 5.9% annual pace in the final three months of the year.

The Fed has allowed special lending facilities to close as financial markets have returned to normal after the crisis, and it recently raised the discount rate it charges banks for emergency loans to 0.75% from 0.5%. Fed officials stressed the move was in keeping with the settling of financial markets and was not a precursor to efforts to tighten lending conditions.

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